|
|
Wednesday, Monday, March 20, 2000
After a lackluster and certainly disappointing finish to the 1999-2000 CCHA season Michigan find’s itself as the number five seed in the East Regional. While most teams heading into the tournament are peaking and playing their best hockey Michigan has stumbled over the last couple of weeks and thankfully wrapped up their tournament bid two weeks ago, when they were last playing good hockey. The Wolverine faithful can only hope, and I do believe, that this will serve as a motivator to the team and we will see our regular Michigan team back on the ice starting this Saturday. I’m not going to attempt to pick every winner in this tournament, but I will attempt to pick a final four. The whole twelve-team field is a collection of the best teams in the country and there are least eight or nine of teams who could realistically end up in Providence in the frozen four. I will first try to give everyone a little information on each of the teams in the field of twelve, let’s start in the East where our Wolverines ended up.
I mention this later in this article, but for you Michigan fans with satellite dishes Michigan’s game Saturday against Colgate will be carried by Empire Sports and Fox Sports New England. I’ve heard, but have not confirmed that should Michigan make the regional finals Fox Sports Detroit will carry their game on Sunday.
East Regional
1 – Maine Blackbears (Hockey East)
The Blackbears ended the regular season in fourth place in Hockey East with 30 points. It was a real close race for spots 2 through 4. Boston University won the conference with 36 points a four-point margin over the next closest team, New Hampshire. New Hampshire had 32, Boston College had 31, and Maine ended the season with 30 points. While the Blackbears had an awful lot of trouble for most of the year they can’t be blamed for all of that trouble. They suffered injury after injury during the season with most of those injuries affecting some key performer on their team. As they got their team back to full strength their on ice performances suddenly started to improve. Maine went 3-4-2 in January, 6-1-0 in February, and 5-0-1 in March (including tournament wins). The lone loss since February came in their first contest in February against New Hampshire. After that loss they have been 11-0-1, one of the reasons why they jumped over teams like Boston College, Boston University, and New Hampshire to claim the top seed in this region. Another reason for them jumping over other non-Hockey East teams for this top seed was their record against the other conferences. They were 9-0-1 overall against non-Hockey East opponents with that breaking down as 1-0-1 (ECAC), 2-0-0 (CCHA), 4-0-0 (WCHA), and 2-0-0 (MAAC). After disposing of Boston University in their Hockey East semi-final match up they ran into a tough opponent in Boston College in the finals. This game remained scoreless through the first two periods with Maine finally drawing first blood at 3:11 of the third. Boston College was finally able to get a goal with just 40 seconds remaining in the game and it looked like overtime was in the cards. The Blackbears had a different idea on this, however, as they scored with just 2.5 seconds remaining to take the Hockey East tournament championship. Obviously Maine is hitting on all cylinders right now and is perhaps the hottest team in college hockey going into the tournament.
2 – St. Lawrence (ECAC)
The Saints ended the regular season in first place in the ECAC with a .825 winning percent; the ECAC is the conference that switched from points to winning percent this year when Vermont cancelled the remainder of their season at the halfway point. Their ECAC conference tournament win coupled with their regular season championship earned them a first round bye in the NCAA tournament. This is the second straight appearance in the tournament for the Saints. The last time that happened was back in 1988 and 1989. The Saints will meet the winner of the St. Cloud-Boston University game. They have never met St. Cloud in the post season and have met Boston University once, losing a 7-6 overtime contest in 1960. The Saints have had a pretty darn good second half of the season going 4-2-1 in January, 7-1-0 in February, and 6-0-0 in March. All of these wins have put 17-1-0 in their last 18 games; they are one of about four teams going into the tournament on absolute rolls. In their non-conference games they went 6-4-1 with this breaking down as 3-2-0 (Hockey East), 0-1-1 (WCHA), 0-1-0 (CCHA), 1-0-0 (CHA), and 2 wins against Wayne State (affiliated with the CHA). Their non-conference wins came against the weaker Hockey East teams and the newest conference (and their affiliates). When playing the stronger teams in Hockey East, the CCHA, and the WCHA they lost. As good as they have been over the second half of the season I’m still not sold on the ECAC. Good teams yes, great teams I’m not so sure. Perhaps the one great advantage for St. Lawrence and Colgate for that matter is that both schools are in New York and the regionals are being played in New York. Not quite the same as Michigan’s home ice edge in 1998, but certainly close to a home ice edge.
3 – Boston University (Hockey East)
The Terriers ended the regular season in first place in Hockey East with a comfortable four-point cushion with thirty-six points. New Hampshire came in second with 32, Boston College was in third with 31 points, and Maine rounded out the top with 30 points in fourth place. As you can see if you discount the Terriers Hockey East had a very close run for the top spots in Hockey East. They didn’t have great success over non-conference teams; however, they did finish over .500 against these teams. They ended the year at 6-5-1 against non-conference teams and those totals break down as follows; 2-2-1 (ECAC), 0-1-0 (CCHA), 3-1-0 (WCHA), and 1-1-0 (CHA). They have had a mixed second half as they went 4-0-4 in January, 7-1-0 in February, and 2-2-1 in March. February was undoubtedly their best month of the second half. They got bounced out of the Hockey East tournament in the semi-finals as they ran into the Blackbears from Maine and found themselves on the short end of a 4-2 score. As they enter the NCAA tournament for they are a team having their ups and downs, but a team that you cannot overlook. They have been to the tournament a NCAA record 25 times (including this year) and was the last team to win back-to-back championships, those coming in 1971 and 1972. A great tradition of hockey and one of the most storied histories in NCAA tournament history, look for the Terriers to give it everything they have.
4 – Colgate (ECAC)
The Red Raiders ended the regular season in second place in the ECAC with a .750 winning percentage (the ECAC switched from points to winning percentage when Vermont cancelled the remainder of their season around the middle of said season). They and St. Lawrence were heads and shoulders above the remainder of this conference. With that said they lost in the semi-finals of their conference tournament to Rensselaer who ended the year in third (I don’t know what that says and as a Michigan fan I’m not going to draw any conclusions based on a semi-final loss). This is the Red Raiders third appearance in the NCAA tournament, their first since 1990. They have a 3-3 record in the tournament and will meet Michigan for the first time in the post season. In their last meeting (October 1997) Colgate and Michigan split a weekend series. They, like St. Lawrence, had a pretty darn good second half of the year. They went 4-1-0 in January, 5-1-1 in February, and 4-1-1 in March. They went 7-3-0 against non-conference opponents with that record breaking down as 2-0-0 (Hockey East), 1-1-0 (WCHA), 1-2-0 (CCHA), 1-0-0 (CHA), and 2-0-0 (MAAC). Also like St. Lawrence when playing the stronger teams in the country they did not fair well out of conference. However, they are not a team to be taken lightly. They have one of the best forwards and one of the best defensemen in the country. They have the conferences leading scorer (36 points) in Andy McDonald with the next closest scorer a full nine points behind. In the last 16 games they have gone 12-2-2 and lay claim to the third best power play in the country. While on paper it certainly looks like Michigan should win this game you can expect Colgate to give the Wolverines everything they could ask for and more. As mentioned with St. Lawrence their school is located in New York and they will have as close a thing to home ice as you can get without actually being on home ice. For those with satellites Empire Sports and Fox Sports New England are carrying their game against Michigan.
5 – University of Michigan (CCHA)
The Wolverines ended the regular season with 41 points, good for first place in the CCHA. After winning the regular season expectations were high for the Wolverines as they entered the CCHA tournament, looking to repeat as tournament champions. After playing good enough to win the first round series against Western Michigan, they team showed up to play their semi-final game against Nebraska-Omaha. While the bodies showed up their spirits stayed in Ann Arbor as Nebraska simply dominated the Wolverines and sent them home to watch the finals on TV. While the Wolverines have only lost three games since the start of the second half, it certainly doesn’t feel that way. They finished January with a record of 4-0-1, February with a record of 4-1-3, and March with a record of 3-2-0. Their first loss of the month came against Bowling Green the night after clinching the CCHA regular season championship and not much attention was paid to that loss. It was the first game the Wolverines had played all year that really didn’t mean anything and many felt it was an anomaly resulting from the Wolverines taking a much-deserved breather. The next week saw them struggle in their Friday night game in the CCHA first round, but they played well enough to win. They played better the second night (again winning the game), but they ended the weekend still with things to work out in their game. Even after the struggle of their first round sweep it appeared that the Wolverines seemed to be getting back on track. The first shock waiting for the Wolverines was their CCHA semi-final opponent, Nebraska-Omaha. The second shock of this tournament was the way in which Nebraska sent the Wolverines home. Michigan has never been beat that badly in a CCHA semi-final game and has left the Wolverines confidence shaken. The Wolverines did well outside the conference this year finishing the year with an overall record of 4-1-0. This record breaks down in the following way; 1-0-0 (ECAC), 2-0-0 (Hockey East), and 1-1-0 (WCHA). The Wolverines enter this year’s NCAA tournament for the tenth straight time, the current streak for consecutive appearances. This is the Wolverines 23rd tournament appearance, third behind Boston University with 25 and Minnesota with 24. Michigan has never faced Colgate in the post season, but holds a 3-1 overall record against the Red Raiders. The last time these two teams met was October 17-18, 1997 at Yost Arena, a series that saw the teams split with Colgate winning Friday and the Wolverines winning Saturday. Michigan enters the tournament with the highest winning percentage of any team at .700 (35-15). Only Minnesota, with 39, has more tournament wins than Michigan. Michigan holds a record nine NCAA tournament championships, the last in 1998. While the Wolverines have stumbled somewhat after clinching the regular season title, they are once again back into a situation where they have to win. If they don’t win they go home and it is in these situations that the Wolverines seem to respond. If they can get past Colgate they face Maine, a team that has bounced Michigan from the NCAA tournament the last two times they have met there. Michigan will have plenty of motivational material going into the tournament and you can expect a much better performance in the upcoming tournament.
6 – St. Cloud (WCHA)
The Huskies finished the season in third place in the WCHA with 35 points behind both North Dakota (39 points) and Wisconsin (46 points). There were some big gaps between all the top teams in this conference as the year wound down to its end. Their results in the WCHA tournament were mixed with a loss in their semi-final game to North Dakota, but a win in the consolation game over Minnesota. This will be St. Cloud’s second appearance in the NCAA tournament. Their last appearance came in 1989 when they qualified as an independent (none of them left). They finished with a mixed second half. They started the second half on fire as they went 6-0-0 in January, but then fell off as they went 3-3-2 in February, and 5-2-0 in March. Against non-conference opponents they went 4-2-0 with that record breaking down as 0-2-0 (CCHA), 2-0-0 (ECAC), and 2-0-0 (CHA). Definitely the weakest of the three teams coming into the tournament from the WCHA and they have to travel to the East Regional where they take on tournament regular Boston University. I’m sure the Huskies are excited about being in the tournament, but I wouldn’t expect to see them play more than one game.
West Regional
1 – Wisconsin (WCHA)
The Badgers finished the regular season with 46 points in the WCHA, good enough for first place. The next closest was second place North Dakota with 39 points, followed by third place St. Cloud with 35 points. The seven point spread between first and second is, I believe, the biggest spread out of the four major conferences. While they won their semi-final game in the WCHA tournament they lost in the finals to North Dakota (handily to I might add, although their might be an empty netter in there). This is the Badgers 18th appearance in the NCAA tournament, their last appearance being in 1998. They had a pretty darn good second half of the season as they went 4-1-1 in January, 8-0-0 in February, and 4-2-0 in March. Against non-conference foes they racked up a 5-1-1 record which breaks down as 2-1-0 (CCHA), 2-0-0 (Hockey East), and 1-0-1 (ECAC). They had one officially non-conference loss against North Dakota, which I did not count in these records. Their lone loss to the CCHA came against Michigan during the College Hockey Showcase. While no single team has really stood head and shoulders above the rest this year, Wisconsin is certainly the best in the WCHA. They have also had a stranglehold on the top ranking in the polls and the top power rankings for the last month or so of the season. While I believe there are several teams with a legitimate chance at winning this years championship you would have to single out the Badgers as being the favorite.
2 – North Dakota (WCHA)
The Fighting Sioux finished the regular season in second place with 39 points, seven points behind first place Wisconsin (46 points). They were four points ahead of third place St. Cloud who finished with 35 points. North Dakota won their WCHA tournament semi-final match against St. Cloud and then went on to win the WCHA tournament championship with a convincing win over Wisconsin. The score sure looks convincing and there does not appear to have been an empty net goal, just got beat. North Dakota started the second half kind of slow posting a 4-3-1 record in January. They picked things up a bit coming down the stretch as they went 4-1-3 in February and 6-1-0 in March. They certainly appear to be getting things together just in time for the NCAA tournament. Against non-conference foes the Fighting Sioux ended the year with a 6-1-0 record which breaks down as 1-0-0 (CCHA), 0-1-0 (Hockey East), 3-0-0 (ECAC), and 2-0-0 (CHA). They had an officially non-conference win over Wisconsin which I did not include in these statistics. This is the fourth straight year that North Dakota has been in the tournament and they claimed the National Championship back in 1997. That was the year that Michigan was the hands down favorite to win their second straight and proceeded to get dumped in the semi-finals by Boston University. Their record over the last three years has been 3-2-0 with the two losses coming to Michigan and Boston College. North Dakota is another of those teams that appear to be coming into the tournament playing their best hockey. They have been flip flopping back and fourth between second and third in the national polls and have been right there in the power rankings. They will certainly be a team to contend with in this year’s championship.
3 – University of New Hampshire (Hockey East)
The Wildcats found themselves in second place at the end of the Hockey East regular season behind the Terriers from Boston University. Boston University ended the season in first with 36 points a comfortable four points ahead of the Wildcats who had 32. Boston College ended the regular season in third with 31 points and Maine rounded out the top of Hockey East with 30 points. The race for positions 2 through 4 was extremely tight between the four top Hockey East teams. New Hampshire had what I would call an average second half as they went 4-2-3 in January, 2-3-1 in February, and 3-1-1 in March. They faired quite well outside their conference with an 8-2-0 overall non-conference record. That record breaks down in the following way; 4-2-0 (ECAC), 3-0-0 (CCHA), and 1-0-0 (WCHA). Boston College who eventually lost a heartbreaker to Maine bounced New Hampshire from the Hockey East tournament in the semi-finals. The Wildcats are another team you can expect to challenge for the frozen four. They lost in the finals to the Maine Blackbears last year and return a large portion of that team.
4 – Boston College (Hockey East)
The Eagles are the fourth, but certainly not least of the teams from Hockey East in this year’s tournament. The Eagles finished the regular season in third place in Hockey East with 31 points. Boston University took first with 36 points, a comfortable four-point edge over second place New Hampshire who ended with 32 points. Maine held fourth place with 30 points. The race for positions 2 through 4 was very tight in Hockey East and the final rounds of the Hockey East tournament were probably the best of any conference in the country. It included Boston University, Boston College, University of New Hampshire, and Maine; the top four teams at the end of the regular season and the four Hockey East teams in the NCAA tournament. The Eagles had a pretty good second half of the season as they went 6-2-1 in January, 5-3-0 in February, and 5-1-0 in March. They have picked up some losses along the way, but their wins generally number far in advance of any losses. They also had a very good year against non-conference teams as they finished that portion of their season with an overall record of 7-1-0. That overall record breaks down in the following way; 5-0-0 (ECAC), 1-0-0 (CCHA), and 1-1-0 (WCHA). They won a close semi-final game against New Hampshire by a 2-1 score. They lost a heartbreaker in the Hockey East finals to Maine by an identical 2-1 score (with Maine scoring the winning goal with just 2.5 seconds left in regulation). Boston College lost to Michigan in the 1998 finals and lost to Maine in overtime in last year’s NCAA semi-finals. They started the season as everyone’s pre-season favorite to win it all, but had a tougher time of it than expected during this season. With the second season starting this coming weekend expect the Eagles to make some noise as they try to make it Providence for another shot at the elusive Frozen Four championship.
5 – Michigan State (CCHA)
The Spartans finished the regular season with 38 points, good enough for second place in the CCHA. They got second place after some pretty strange end of season games within the conference. Northern Michigan, a team that looked certain to take second and the Spartans place in the NCAA tournament simply collapsed in the last month of the season. It was both unexpected and spectacular at the same time (I’m sure the Wildcat fans didn’t find it spectacular). The Spartans started the second half kind of slowly, but have really come on strong in the closing weeks. They ended January with a 2-3-2 record, while they went 5-2-1 in February, and 5-0-1 in March. Michigan State is currently on a five game winning, nine game unbeaten streak and is the third hottest team in the country going into the NCAA tournament. Only St. Lawrence and Maine are hotter. The Spartans did well this year outside the CCHA as they had an overall record of 4-2-1 against non-conference schools. The overall record breaks down in the following way; 1-0-0 (CHA), 1-0-1 (ECAC), and 2-2-0 (WCHA). Michigan State goes into their 20th NCAA tournament, their 17th in the last 19 years, and their seventh straight. Their coach, Ron Mason, enters his 20th NCAA tournament, the most by any coach. The Spartans as expected disposed of Notre Dame in the CCHA semi-final game and did away with their unexpected final opponent, Nebraska-Omaha. Ryan Miller, the freshman goaltender, pitched back to back shut outs in the CCHA tournament, the first time this has ever been done. These were also his seventh and eighth shut outs of the season. You can probably expect to see a lot of Miller in the NCAA tournament, although the Spartans could go with the experience in their first game against Boston College. As I mentioned earlier the Spartans are hot going into this tournament and you know they want to go to Providence after making the frozen four last year. After making the frozen four last year they were unceremoniously dumped out by New Hampshire, but the Spartans look for the second straight frozen four appearance.
6 – Niagara (CHA)
The Purple Eagles finished the regular season a run away winner in the CHA conference and are the real wildcard in this year’s tournament. This is the first year for the CHA conference, a conference with only six teams, and they find themselves with a representative in the NCAA tournament. If memory serves me correctly Niagara left the MAAC last year to join the CHA in their inaugural season. With such a small number of teams in the conference they do play a lot of non-conference games and they had a decent non-conference record. Their non-conference record was 11-7-2 overall and breaks down in the following way; 1-1-0 (WCHA), 2-1-0 (MAAC), 2-0-0 (Hockey East), 4-4-1 (ECAC), and 2-1-1 (CCHA). As I said they ran away with their conference title as they finished the year with 38 points. The next closest team was Alabama-Huntsville who finished with 29 points. The Purple Eagles beat Air Force in their conference semi-final game by a considerable margin and wrapped up their conference title with a close win over Alabama-Huntsville. They had a pretty good second half of the season with records of 9-0-2 in January, 5-2-0 in February, and 3-0-1 in March. Their January schedule was very busy, February was moderately busy, and they have hardly played in March. Their conference tournament concluded a week earlier than everyone else’s and this inactivity is either giving the Purple Eagles time to heal and prepare or is making them rusty. This is the first time we’ve seen a team from a conference other than the big four (since they were formed) and could be a sign of the times. The big question is whether they can compete with the other conferences best teams (most of their success against out of conference schools was against middle to bottom teams – not all, but most). Look to see if they come out flying in their first NCAA appearance or if they find the experience more than they are ready to handle, since it’s their first time to the tournament.
Closing Comments
Well there you have all the information that isn’t information. All in all I’d say this is a pretty strong field of twelve teams with probably nine teams that have legitimate chances of winning it all. I would put St. Cloud, Colgate, and Niagara as the real long shots. Each of the top seeds are coming into this tournament rolling right along and appear poised to challenge for the title. Now it’s time to put my stretch my neck out there on the chopping block again as I pick my final four. First, from the West I have to go with Wisconsin and North Dakota making it to Providence. While I believe Boston College will send Michigan State home and New Hampshire will send Niagara home I don’t see the two top seeds falling victim to the upset. Michigan State will give Boston College all they can handle and I think Niagara will do the same to New Hampshire. With the extra effort those two teams will put forth just getting to the regional finals the two top seeds will win the weekend with their closer to home ice location. In the East I see Boston University and Michigan advancing to Providence. Logic tells me that I should take Maine over Michigan. They have been hotter than Hades lately and they are the defending National Champion, but I think that all works against them. I have to believe that we will see the real Michigan team this weekend, if we don’t then you can count Maine to Providence. I think Michigan can handle Colgate, as I said before I’m just not sold on the strength of the ECAC. With this being a tournament game and with Michigan coming into this tournament with something to prove to themselves and the country, well lets just say I wouldn’t want to be a Red Raider on Saturday. If the Wolverines get past Colgate they have all the motivation in the world against Maine as the Blackbears have bounced the Wolverines out of two tournaments in the last 10 years. If Michigan gets back to playing Michigan hockey they stack up well against anyone in this tournament. In the other regional opener I think Boston University is just going to be too much for St. Cloud. Boston University is a tournament tested team and they won’t be swayed by the hoopla around the tournament. I have the same problem with St. Lawrence that I have with Colgate; I’m just not sold on their strength. I think Boston University actually has the easiest road to Providence of any team in the tournament.
So there you have it, my frozen four is Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan, and Boston University. Three parts logic and one part heart (with some strongly rationalized logic to back it up). Michigan is certainly capable of making it to Providence; it will all hinge on which Michigan team shows up in Albany this weekend. If it’s the Michigan team that we watched for most of the second half, well lets just say I’ll take them any day. If it’s the Michigan team that we saw last weekend it’s going to be a short weekend. Until Saturday, C-ya!
|
|
|
